Nothing could be more apt when trying to figure out what may happen in any of several scenarios in the whole of the Mid East and specifically Egypt. It is an ongoing event and we view the daily scene in constant flux. Certainly I know less than the experts, but sometimes keeping things simple and hopefully logical will help us see the big picture clearly.
I can only put together certain points beginning with accepting the purely mercenary benefits of $250 billion yearly in foreign aid to the country who has supported our position in several areas and has been instrumental in keeping the peace with Israel. It should not be necessary to list the obvious here relative to allies, etc. The importance of the Suez Canal also needs to be taken into consideration.
We must be wary of the foxes who may be able to fool the younger people who are involved in the actual street battles into believing their rhetoric and end up with a Muslim Brotherhood which may or may not be a Jihadist organization. What would be the consequences of a free election if the government just became another dictatorship?
The military position is not known, but up until now it is apparent that they have avoided open antagonism and have shown restraint. In my opinion they have demonstrated that they are patriots first and do not play favorites. Historically some military have shown their partisanship or even have leveraged power and leadership into a new brand of dictatorship. I hope my optimism is not misplaced when I say I believe the Egyptian military would be the examples of discipline and strong character that the protesters may be looking for.
Watching this protest unfold has led me to hope that Mubarak retires, his VP, just appointed but almost surely acceptable to the military, will also be able to convince the protesters that he is a sincere and able leader and will be given time to form a new government which will address their concerns but keep in place whatever is necessary to stabilize the atmosphere. One can only hope and pray.
One other little story tonight. Due to an accident our car insurance had taken s jump and at just the right time an insurance company did a bulk mailing. My husband called and since we have both auto and Homeowner with the same company we asked for both quotes to compare. Surprise! Because of the market devaluation--countrywide--we would be able to get only about half the actual replacement coverage. And that was the end of that. Needless to say we're staying with our present insurer, but...
I have no idea what the statistics on catastrophic events on homes might be, but there must be an appreciable number of folks who are not only "under water" or upside down on their homes but have sustained some kind of loss and now owe more than a house was worth and there is no longer a house!!! I haven't heard of this kind of problem, but it's scary to even think of it.
I'm thinking prayers for the unemployed and for our legislators and leadership to be able to find the path out of this mess.